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My 2012 Presidential prediction

Posted by Arkady K. On 11/05/2012

I find myself in a very different philosophical, theoretical and physical mood today than I found myself 4 years ago on the day before elections.  Last year, I was a nervous wreck and considered the impending election a critical juncture in America's history.  While I found myself objecting to much of what McCain had to offer and ultimately chose to vote third party, deep inside I longed for his victory.  My rationale at the time, heightened by the mysterious nature of Barack Obama, was that someone as Left as Obama will be devastating for the country.  I look at that thought process now and laugh.

See, I am not laughing because I was wrong in my assessment of Obama and his propensity for damage, especially armed with a like-minded Congress, I was very wrong for another reason.  I foolishly thought that if McCain had won, our economic and financial health would somehow be different.  I am sure at this point, you - regardless of political persuasion - are annoyed with my calculus.  "But what of ObamaCare" you are probably thinking or "It takes a long time to clean up the GOP mess".  What of it and so what?  Sure the policies may have looked and sounded differently and it is a fool's errand to argue of what may or may not have happened, but looking over the past thirty, forty and maybe eight years it seems rather clear that the color of the jersey is irrelevant.

You can call them GOP policies, democrat policies or what they really are - Big Government policies.  The end result is the same.  There is nothing in the history of mankind that has benefited humanity more than the naturally evolved and organic free market.  A system that requires no coercion, no directives, no central planners and no highly paid and politically entrenched officials.  It is an offspring of humanity, a purely logical evolution of (wo)man - and it has been under constant attack.   Man is a powerful creature, it has the capacity to create so much, but the corollary is also true, man has the capacity to destroy.  It is this destruction of the natural market that has been taking place in this country for years and the speed of this destruction has demonstrably picked up.  

It took me a while, but it is finally clear - that in order to solve our biggest and most ailing problems, we need to stop the destruction and reverse course.   Just like a body riddled with drugs, alcohol and tobacco we have to stop and let the natural healing process take place.  It will, I am sure of it, but the destructive elements must be eradicated.   These elements come from the Right and the Left, both parties promising to fix what ails you, while continue to feed you a deadly poison.   The end result is a rotten corpse that slogs through life in a zombie state whose survival depends on the continuation of a lethal cocktail, a cocktail that represents a continuation of policies that constantly destroy and erode the market place.

Enough philosophy, besides, for a vast majority of the people everything written above is nonsensical garbage.  We have us to blame for this of course.  We can certainly blame politicians and the political process for reducing something as critical as civics and governance to the 30-second sound bite stupidity that dominates our airwaves, but that would be a premature scapegoat.   The political process, like any other business advertising is purely a function of what the public responds to.   It is the public, the mob, that politicians cater to and it is entirely responsible for the quality and quantity of what we see and hear from our politicians. A catering to the least common denominator is unavoidable and tragic.  There ARE other choices, there have been for over forty years, but the public is simply not interested.

Thus, whatever happens tomorrow will be of little consequence in the grand scheme of things.  If I were to allow my emotions dictate my writing for a while;  it would be great to see that smug arrogant bastard of a president be removed along with his obnoxious and nasty wife who might suddenly lose pride for her country and the entire riff-raff comprising the administration....but why?  So that another arrogant smug bastard settles in?  Someone who can't even articulate a tax plan?  Someone whose job creation past consists of strategic financial moves?  Someone who will just as quickly wipe his posterior with the 2nd Amendment as he would with any other portion of the Constitution that he pretends to uphold?

There is an upside to having Obama stay in power.  The upside is simple; if you are insistent on voting for a winner, then your choice is continued destruction of the market.  You are guaranteed to be given another choice in four years, it may be a better or worse choice, but it will be another choice.  If Romney wins tomorrow, then your guarantee vanishes instantly.  

You need to ask yourself a question;  are you willing to endure another four years of Obama for the chance that in four years, there will be a possible candidate that will favor creation and have the possibility of winning.   While I will always vote for creation, I think I am willing to wait another four years.

That being said, my prediction:

Every major pundit from Karl Rove, Dick Morris, Michael Barone, George Will and others are predicting a Romney win.  I disagree.

Here is why (source Rasmussen):



Despite all the hardships and damage, Obama is enjoying an amazing pickup in approval.  How someone can pass the 830 Billion Stimulus, ObamaCare, Dodd-Frank, NDAA and flub foreign policy after foreign policy decision and enjoy such a strong approval is beyond me.  

The trading odds, while not always accurate (they flubbed the individual mandate SCOTUS decision) are looking grim for Romney.

I am also ignoring the national numbers and focusing on the states, to that effect, here is my prediction of what the EC map will look like tomorrow:



The two states I am not sure about are Virginia and New Hampshire.  Both of those could go to Romney, but that would not make a difference and so it is just a guess.

My boldest prediction is this:  On November 7th, the day after, people will wake up and collectively wonder - how were all the professional pundits so wrong!?

That is all.  Now it would be great to get back to things that actually matter.

--arkady



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"It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a ‘dismal science.’ But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance.” - M. Rothbard